CES 2010 = fewer exhibits but more China?    I haven’t researched this to know for sure, but I think there’s a larger China presence here at CES than last year, especially from “mainland” companies from Beijing and other cities outside of Hong Kong.     The conference no longer has the large exhibit space at the Sands, making it a bit easier to navigate because there is less need to travel back and forth between the Venetian Sands venue and the Las Vegas Convention Center.

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You can always count on Henry Blodget of  Silicon Alley Insider for provocative industry analysis and today’s post is no exception where he  insists that the TV industry will be suffering the same fate as the print industry in 5-10 years.

I think Blodget offers some good basic trends to watch in the TV market but I’m not as pessimistic because we are certain to see more “convergence power” in the TV sector than we did with print.   Never underestimate the power of luddites and technophobes to influence and even drive TV marketing to some extent, and there are many of them left who have no desire to jump on the computing bandwagon.

This group alone will remain a large market for some time – certainly more than five years.   Also, as celebrities increasingly interact with viewers in multiple venues and niche markets develop to cater to every interest I think TV has as long way to go, though I certainly agree with Blodget that changes are coming and only the flexible and clever may survive.

I think this point in his article is excellent and very true:

As with print-based media, Internet-based distribution generates only a tiny fraction of the revenue and profit that today’s incumbent cable, broadcast, and satellite distribution models do.  As Internet-based distribution gains steam, therefore, most TV industry incumbents will no longer be able to support their existing cost structures.

He predicts the following:

The best content creators will do just fine. Video storytelling won’t go away.  Compared to the people who produced Battlestar Galactica, the Sopranos, and West Wing, etc., the folks who post to YouTube generally suck at it.  So great content creators won’t have to worry about them.

The lousy content creators will disappear. No big loss.  And no big change.

The cable companies will become dumb pipes, and they’ll get disintermediated. We won’t need Brian Roberts to negotiate a deal with the Tennis Channel for us (or, rather, to prevent us from getting the Tennis Channel because of some contract dispute).  We’ll just go direct.

The phone companies will remain dumb pipes.

The wireless companies will become dumber pipes.

The competition between the multiple dumb pipes will eventually, we pray, result in lower prices for consumers for the only thing we will really need: Ubiquitous high-speed Internet access.

Box and device companies will remain box and device companies. Unless Apple somehow creates a new global chokepoint via the iPhone.

Networks that produce live news, sports, and entertainment will offer the content direct to consumers. But they’ll no longer get paid big carriage fees from cable companies.

A few clever online aggregators–YouTube? Hulu? Cable companies? Netflix?–will create nice video portals and build powerful new businesses.   At these portals, you’ll be able to sign up to watch anything in the world on any device you want.  You’ll be able choose among multiple subscription models (monthly, a la carte).  You’ll also have a basic “what’s on” option in case you just want to watch TV.

Some of the most interesting marketing issues of all time are now shaking out in terms of online distribution and advertising.     Literally since the birth of mass media, we’ve come to expect content from heavily capitalized outlets with major advertising programs.    As Blodget notes this *must* change because online distribution and advertising are both very cheap compared to legacy media alternatives.    What will be left when the fat is stripped away?    We can’t know yet, but I have a hunch as consumers we’ll be at least as happy, entertained, and well informed as we are now (though that may not be saying all that much!).

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Update:  Here is the Kindle info from Amazon – Amazon Press Release on Kindle 2

Engadget is reporting that the the Amazon Kindle 2 will be announced on Monday with a release date of about February 24th. (Picture from Engadget website but I think it’s an Amazon press photo).

The new Kindle looks a lot better than the first edition, but at a reported price of $359 I’ll be surprised if this takes off to the extent many have predicted. However I certainly would say that based on the very weak Kindle imitations we saw at CES last month Amazon certainly appears poised to have the best in class book reader.

Amazon remains conspicuously silent on sales information for the Kindle leading to what I’m still inclined to think are extraordinary claims by some analysts, but if they really can corner the book reading market maybe the Kindle 2 really will become the new “must have” gadget.

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Reports are still coming in and the official audited numbers are not ready yet, but it appears that attendance at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show CES 2009 was down over 20%, to 110,000 attendees. CES 2008 saw about 130,000 and CES 2007 even more so this does not appear to be an encouraging development for the electronics industry.

The Las Vegas Sun suggests that company expense cutbacks are mostly responsible for the lower attendance.

Is low attendance an indication of trouble yet to come? Unfortunately the answer is probably yes as CES is the world’s most influential electronics show and company cutbacks there are likely to reflect their own perceptions of troubles ahead.

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John will have more later on this topic as he had a chance to test one of the world’s top racing simulators on display at CES by Simcraft but I wanted to get these pictures online .  We had a nice talk with Simcraft’s CEO about his plans for moving forward with this remarkable driving simulation tool.    Rather than the arcade market with its liability challenges he explained that one of  Simcraft’s major projects right now is a contract with the Department of Defense to use the simulators to train drivers for high speed runs when they must avoid IEDs in Iraq and other combat environments.

At $44,000 this is not accessible to most but with a remarkable cage suspension system that gives the driver 3 degrees of motion this really is likely to be the sim of choice for high end drivers who can pony up the cash.

Autoblog has more on this device – easily one of CES’ most impressive demos.

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Casio’s focus at CES 2009 was on their robust new digital camera line.   G4 covered the Casio CES Press Conference at CES.

The most interesting aspects of the new Casio cameras will be high speed photography and effects which will allow regular users to deploy some things only pros could use before such as 60 frame per second sequences in simple cameras and 1200 frame per second high speed video from relatively inexpensive camcorders.

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The fantastic Cntrstg blog lounge at the Wynn during CES 2009 was definitely one of the conference highlights for me.  The event lasted for much of the conference late into the night and provided a fantastic venue for blogging, relaxing, and several good tech presentations.     Cntrstg was along the lines of the Bloghaus in the Bellagio – a great event from the past two CES’s.

Thanks so much to the Cntrstg crew who did an amazing job of keeping folks fed and fueled and to the sponsors of this excellent Blog lounging event:

HP Microsoft American Airlines Scooba Design Pro Clip AMD BuzzCorps OtterBox Boston Power Eye Fi Adapt Mobile Big Skinny

Disclosure:  Freebies from the blog lounge included beer, great Wynn catered food, a Scooba laptop bag, and a free airline ticket from the American Airlines presentation.

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One of my *favorite* companies at CES was Freeplay with several innovative humanitarian technology solutions as well as their innovative line of self-powered lanterns, radios, and more.

As part of their Foundation Work, Freeplay is building cheap, self powered devices for remote medicine in developing world and another device to charge One Laptop Project computers.   Below are three such devices – all self powered.    Emergency Radio, One Laptop Per Child Power crank (I’m not clear if this is better than the one built into those devices but I think it’s to be used for OLPC plus other devices), and one of the best innovations at CES 2009 which is an inexpensive fetal heart monitor to be used by nurses and doctors in the field to help lower infant mortality.    Freeplay’s work in this field will help save thousands of lives very cheaply because the lack of such medical data in the field is a key reason for the high mortality rates in the developing world.

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Schwinn, with corporate headquarters and factory now located in Madison Wisconsin, showcased their electric bikes at CES.    A Toshiba battery about a foot long is located on the back of the bike and is chargeable both from pedalling or via a plug.    The “Electric Assist” can be turned on and off and powers the front wheel at the rider’s command.

At $3000+ for this  Tailwind model and $2000 for the least expensive Schwinn’s these electric bike may have some price point challenges before hitting the broad cycling market although this may prove a very appealing device to commuters or cyclists who want a sort of personal “hybrid” transport vehicle.

For do-it-yourself conversion kits and some lower cost electric bikes check out this Electric Bike website - they appear to have a very comprehensive selection and some electric bikes at $1000 which I’d suggest is a key price point as people upgrade their regular bikes and start considering regular, non-electric bikes in that range.

There is some good coverage and video of the Schwinn over at Treehugger

Schwinn’s company site is here

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