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Google Social Circle

February 8th, 2010

Google labs is testing a very interesting new feature within the Google search results which lists and ranks content from people that have connections to your own social networks, websites, blogs, etc.   It’s called Google Social Circle and I think this approach has a lot of potential.

Google labs writes:

We’ve taken steps to improve the relevance of our search results with personalization, but today’s launch takes that one step further. With Social Search, Google finds relevant public content from your friends and contacts and highlights it for you at the bottom of your search results. When I do a simple query for [new york], Google Social Search includes my friend’s blog on the results page …

Filtering the massive oceans of content is what Google has been doing so effectively for some time, but the social media explosion has created a new kind of relevance Google’s basic ranking system has not been taking into account.    The content of trusted friends and associates is often going to be more relevant to us than that of, say, internet marketeers in a foreign country.     If, for example, my pal has travelled to Morrocco I’m going to trust his stuff – and probably be more interested in it – than information from strangers.    Google Social Circle will incorporate that relevance into the search results, and I think by doing this they may succeed where Facebook and Twitter have pretty dramatically failed.    Facebook’s search system and layout – in my experience – makes it very hard to search for information.  It can even be difficult to find a person you know, let alone find content they have created that is relevant to your search.    Twitter lists are something of a step in the right direction of targeting for relevant information, but Twitter search is severely lacking and I don’t even know if they they are particularly interested in providing the kind of contextual content mapping Google is testing with Social Circle.

Another interesting – some would say sinister – aspect of this approach by Google is to create internet environments filled with “trusted online information sources” that have been endorsed by different networks of friends.    Clever use of the data flowing in will allow Google to better screen sites based on human input, which is much harder to spoof than manipulations commonly done as part of aggressive “Search Engine Optimization” tactics.

The Social Circle reminds me of an advanced version of “del.icio.us”, a tagging and bookmarking service aquired (and largely abandoned?) by Yahoo a few years ago.  Delicious allowed users to tag and label sites and content, creating link lists of things relevant to them and giving them the ability to share these links with others.    By automating that process and using their brilliant search algorithm to slice and dice individual information, Google has pushed us one step closer to the holy grail of search – a system that shows us exactly what we want/need to see even if we cannot clearly state exactly what we want or need.

Google, SEO, Social Networks, Social media, internet, search , , , ,

Digital Entertainment Trends

July 16th, 2009

Despite the recession, the explosion of innovation and growth in the digital entertainment sector we have seen over the past decades is very likely to continue.

A key trend currently and for the approximately 5 year time frame will be the increasing significance of how the various players approach and succeed in their approaches to *content monetization*. Google’s spectacular success in this arena has made them the player to watch in terms of innovation and change, but also makes them the most vulnerable to sweeping changes in online advertising (unlikely) and to better adoption of Google’s innovative approaches in this area (likely).

Google’s key innovation was not great search, rather it was the ability to offer highly targeted advertising that was not offensive to users. This killer combination remains a holy grail for all players in the industry and is likely to remain the holy grail for the 3-7 year time frame of this analysis.

Although Microsoft has failed dramatically in their efforts to monetize (or even provide) online search, the XBOX 360 may be the best example of using a superior device and powerful global brand to monetize entertainment content in the form of video games.   Unfortunately Microsoft’s past losses on the XBOX 360 make it hard to analyze how effective their very long term strategy will be with the XBOX – a strategy that anticipated huge losses for some time as they sought to capture an elusive, primarily teen male market.

In terms of technology and power the Nintendo WII is inferior to the XBOX 360, but the WII appears likely to monetize better over the long haul. Compelling gameplay and clever, demographically targeted marketing seems likely to trump compelling technological achievements – a lesson Microsoft seems destined to relearn with each new deployment.

Other trends are probably not as sweeping in significance as those related to optimizing content monetization because in this market potential profits often drive the directions of change and innovation. I’m describing them below next to the relevant players:

Device Manufacturers: Key trends will relate to customer aquisition and retention and mobile advertising. Branding and customer loyalty are now trumped by cost and convenience and this will continue with the conspicuous exception of the iPhone which is likely to garner good to great customer loyalty. The Google Phone or mobile software may revolutionize this market because it appears likely Google will use targeted advertising in innovative ways to keep phone costs down. Prediction: Google will offer software that is broadly compatible with many new iPhone style devices, and will offer cost cutting using advertising. The effort will succeed though it will add relatively little to Google’s bottom line for some time. It will seriously threaten the ability of struggling carriers like Sprint to stay viable in this market, but they will copy the innovative revenue approaches of Google and may even wind up providing Google software on their own phones. Historically Google likes to see key players thrive using Google innovations rather than displace them (e.g. adsense advertising for other websites).  Treo and Palm in trouble – Centro is too little, too late.   CEO Advice: Partner, customer centricism, mobile advertising innovations.

Distribution Networks: As distribution of digital entertainment and content converges, and online distribution mechanisms gain market share and technological traction, legacy companies must evolve or risk being seriously crippled by online players like Google YouTube and Yahoo Video. Again however it appears that the online players are more interested in partnerships than in global distribution domination, so we are likely to see an era of big brand partners across the board with all media types.

Content Producers: This is the most threatened group thanks to the rise of social networking, user generated content, and superb free online software. Content producers should seek whenever possible to leverage user generated and legacy content to keep production costs to a minimum. They should anticipate the fatigue people may experience with low quality online video clips and seek to jump into that space with quality legacy or cheap original content.

Good advice to digital entertainment CEOs?   Partner, and partner some more.  Scale to modest production values at low cost for most productions, while preserving the lucrative “huge budget” film market which will remain capital intensive for some time. Use innovative high technologies to reduce labor and time costs while still creating “big budget” style content.Web based content aggregators: Google and Facebook are the players to watch as they are currently driving the innovation and Google is driving monetization in the key online content spaces of search, social networking, and video.    Look for search revenues to continue massively upward as advertisers increasingly become aware that offline advertising is generally less effective, often with negative ROIs.    Online advertising often has negative ROI as well but the measurability and superiority of online targeted pay per click and pay per action models will continue to shape the market and drive advertising online.  Short term gains for Google, long term gains for all content aggregators.   However, Facebook’s trumpeted 10 billion+ valuations are misguided and premature.   Look for video and social networking to monetize poorly – even worse than generally expected.   Fixing this will be difficult and may not be possible.   Search advertising will continue to be the key monetizer in the online space.    CEO advice:  No vacations.   Copy Google.  Leverage existing customer bases (MS and Yahoo and Google) to populate new efforts in social networking.   Do not buy Facebook.  Myspace will continue to thrive but gradually lose ground to Facebook as user sophistication increases.   This will lead to more “openness” at Myspace and an approximate consolidation of current market share while Facebook and many other social networks will grow faster, and potentially explosively.  Look for the “killer social networking application” in this market, and buy it early.

Multi-business tech/media conglomerates: Momentum matters, and Sony and Microsoft are such enormous revenue and profit powerhouses that they keep moving the market as needed to give them control that is in many ways simply in proportion to their size.   However, especially in the 5 year outlook Microsoft faces a huge threat from online office suites and services that are free, good, and gaining rapid use.   Look for the enterprise markets to dry up – slowy – in favor of cheap open source and online solutions.   Look for Microsoft to continue failing in the online space.  They simply do not seem to understand or simply don’t want to negotiate the new open landscape where leaders, followers, market movers and market shakers all mingle comfortably in the interest of optimizing the big game.   Google understands this principle brilliantly as does Yahoo, though neither appear to have a keen interest in diversifying to the extent that would be needed to assume Microsoft or Sony’s role in the entertainment industry.

Sony will fare better due to their current and continuing key market positions in movies and gaming.  Unlike Microsoft they are not threatened as much by online changes and the direct, hostile competition to MSN that is coming from Google.

Summary:

The pace of innovation and technological change in the entertainment industry will not subside, and may even continue to increase.   The key force of content monetization  will drive the entire industry and online search will be the most explosive ongoing revenue source.   Reducing the cost of content production will be a key challenge.  Producers and distributors should leverage social networks with their user generated content and cheap archival legacy content as much as possible

CES09, Google, Television, Web 2.0, conferences, digital TV, gaming, microsoft, technology , , , , , ,

Google Researchers Make Image Recognition Breakthrough

June 22nd, 2009

Google research has announced they may have reached a significant milestone in image recognition.   In a demonstration and paper they’ll present today at an imaging conference Google will:

…. begin with an unnamed, untagged picture of a landmark, enter its web address into the recognition engine, and poof — the computer identifies and names it: “Recognized Landmark: Acropolis, Athens, Greece.” Thanks computer.

Although they explain this is not a new Google project, the implications of a very robust computerized imaging are very significant.   I’m not clear how this research intersects or relates to the facial recognition work of Riya and other companies, but as *hundreds of billions* of images pour onto the web from all over the world and as artificial intelligence systems such as the autonomous self driving vehicles of the Darpa challenge evolve, image recognition is certainly a very key element of the innovations that are driving computing forward.

Human information processing is primarily driven by visual interpretations and cues, so this may be considered something of an Artificial Intelligence milestone.

Artificial Intelligence, Google ,

Wolfram Alpha Search. It’s no Google.

May 17th, 2009

Reporting:  Joe Hunkins

Early hype suggesting that new search engine Wolfram Alpha could be a possible “Google Killer” quickly shifted to a focus on Wolfram’s new approach to search, which they call “computational”.     Although Technology-Report had early access to the program it is now open to all here:  http://www.wolframalpha.com

Although I’ve only spent a short time looking for inspiration at Wolfram Alpha, I’d have to say I could not find any answers where I felt Wolfram would beat out a Google search combined with some quick scans of the listed resources.     Wolfram’s promise was to deliver “the answer” to complicated questions but it seems to work well only for the kinds of information it appears they have already sliced and diced into packages, and I’m not clear it even beats out a Wikipedia entry when searching for data like states or countries where a packaged approach to the information is best.

A quick comparison of Wolfram’s answer to “New York” vs Google’s vs Wikipedia’s

In a case like this I’d argue Wikipedia is the clear winner, giving the user extensive information and links to more.   Google second with good lists, and Wolfram a distant third with very limited information given the wealth of data online.

For students creating notes (or papers to hand in!) Wolfram may provide some great tools with its unique organization schema, but for most internet researchers and browsers I think Google has nothing to worry about here at all.

Google, Web 2.0, Websites, search , ,

Google Chrome: It’s a very good browser, so why don’t we use it?

December 17th, 2008

When Google Chrome launched several months ago I think a lot of folks assumed they’d be switching to that browser, which uses several excellent innovations to enhance online navigation.     Google even issued a nifty comic book to help explain the innovation, and blogs were buzzing for weeks with mostly neutral or favorable reviews.

So what happened?    Why is Google Chrome market share so small compared to Firefox and IE?

The first reason of course is simply  … habit ….   It’s very hard to get people – even innovative online folks – to change from one good application to another.   Contrary to a lot of silly suggestions the Internet Explorer browser was not broken and even though FireFox has slowly been gaining market share it is clear that the rapid demise of IE was greatly exaggerated.     I use FireFox but I’d hardly say it’s dramatically superior or even all that different from IE.

Although it’s hurting Google Chrome, our habituation works very well for Google in the search sphere where people tend to use Google for search without even testing against other engines – that game is over and until we see a major new semantic search innovation Google’s likely to be the search of choice for years to come.

Interestingly Google Chrome really does “feel” different to me and on balance I liked the differences, yet like millions of other onliners who loaded up Chrome I did not switch over and rarely use that browser now.  I know one of my concerns was the uncertainty that still surrounds Google’s treatment of the data I indirectly share with them using Google products.   As a regular user of Google search, Gmail, blogger, and more watching Google both become dominant and also struggle to maintain their legendarily high online revenue I do worry that Google has too great a potential to become “the boss of me”.

Still not sure what’s up with Chrome, but as with many things internet it’s good to head over to Matt Cutts’ blog to get a very well informed opinion.     Matt is one of a handful of Google’s veteran search engineers and writes what for many is the key blog discussing issues relating to search, especially Google search.

Matt’s Five Reasons to Use Google Chrome

Matt’s Ten Reasons Not to Like Google Chrome

Hmmm – I don’t think it’s fair to use the 5 vs 10 math here, but maybe Matt’s on to something.   As creatures of habit we tend to settle in to the familiar and with the new we quickly look for things that bother us.   Google Chrome may in fact be the best browser, and I think I’d want to take the Crhome side in a debate even though I’m not using it, but not sure if I’ll be able to break the old browser habits.    Will you?

Google, Web 2.0, internet , , ,

Artificial Intuition a key to AI?

November 19th, 2008

Convergence08 was a great conference with many interesting people and ideas. Thankfully the number of crackpots was very low, and even the “new age” mysticism stuff was at a minimum. Instead I found hundreds of authors, doctors, biologists, programmers, engineers, physicists, and more clear thinking folks all interested in how the new technologies will shape our world in ways more profound than we have ever experienced before.

My favorite insights came from Monica Anderson’s presentation on her approach to AI programming, which she calls “Artificial Intuition“. Unlike all other approaches to AI I’m familiar with Anderson uses biological evolution as her main analogs for conceptualizing human intelligence. I see this approach as almost a *given* if you have a good understanding of humans and thought, but it’s actually not a popular conceptual framework for AI, where most approaches rely on complex algorithmic logic – logic that Anderson argues clearly did not spawn human intelligence via evolution. Yet Anderson is by no means a programming neophyte – she’s a software engineer who has researched AI for some time, then spent two years programming at Google and then quit to start her own company, convinced that her AI approaches are on the right track.

Anderson’s work is especially impressive to me because as someone with a lot of work in biology under my belt (academically as well as corporeally) it has always surprised me how poorly many computer programmers understand even rudimentary biological concepts such as the underlying simplicity of the human neocortex and the basic principles of evolution which I’d argue emphatically have defined *every single aspect* of our human intelligence over a slow and clumsy, hit and miss process operating over millions of years. I think programmers tend to focus on mathematics and rule systems which are great modelling systems but probably a very poor analog for intelligence. This focus has in many ways poisoned the well of understanding about what humans and other animals do when they … think… which I continue to maintain is “not all that special”.

Anderson’s conceptual framework eliminates what I see as a key impediment to creating strong AI with conventional software engineering – ie having to build a massively complex programmable emulation of human thought. Instead, her approach ties together many simple routines that emulate the simple ways animals have developed to effectively interact with a changing environment.

Combining Anderson’s approach to the programming with the physical models of the neocortical column such as IBM Blue Brain would be my best bet for success in the AI field.

Artificial Intelligence, Google, Science & Technology, Singularity, companies, computers, conferences , , ,

Live from Convergence08 Conference

November 15th, 2008

Mountain View, California: Convergence08 conference.  Hundreds of people are gathering here at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View “Bringing Life to Big Ideas”.    The focus is on four core technologies and how they will change the world dramatically in the coming decades:   Infotech, Cogtech, Nanotech, and Biotech.

I’m especially interested in hearing from Peter Norvig, Google researcher and the guy who – literally – wrote the textbook on Artificial Intelligence.

So far the organization of this conference is very impressive though it’s not clear how many are attending.    The group keynote begins in about 20 minutes.

Artificial Intelligence, Google, Singularity, computers , ,

Online Advertising Primer from Google

June 26th, 2007

Alex at Google is explaining Google’s decision to buy DoubleClick and in doing so offers one of the best advertising primers I’ve run across.   People seem to have an enormous difficulty understanding why contextually targeted search ads tend to be a lot more effective than offline advertising and this will help them.  Online banner ads are probably just as crappy as offline ads.   This is a key reason Google has done so well – they dominate the contextual ad market while Yahoo has struggled to deliver a similar quality product.  Yahoo now has a good contextual ad product, but some think it’s too late for Yahoo to capture a big part of this market.   My view is that the game has only begun.

Google, yahoo

Jimmy Wales on Charlie Rose

May 22nd, 2007

Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia, discusses his Wikia search projectand the internet. He’s the chairman of Wikia, Inc. He thinks it’ll be 2-3 years before they have a robust product.

“Democratic, participatory” search project.
“Google, Yahoo, Ask” have similar, proprietary and closed search. He wants to break up the idea that a few companies should be so dominant.

Making search ubiquitous. He thinks Google may not have problems with WIKIA because they can keep matching up ads, advertisers, and buyers as they have been.

Wales thinks Facebook made the right decision to turn down Yahoo’s billion+ offer for Facebook, calling it an “interesting gamble”. “He’s a pretty sharp guy” (Zuckerman), and Wales thinks that unlike Myspace, Facebook is doing right by the customers. Notes increase of spam and advertising intensity of Myspace.

Wikia major initiatives: Search, Reference Works for humor, opinion, sports. 66 languages plus a “Klingon language” project. “Roll this revolution” into many other areas. What makes the internet great is that it’s a “global platform for people to share knowledge”. Keeping it “open” appears to be a key guiding principle for Wales, and his admirable efforts at Wikipedia support his sincerity in that mission.

Wales suggests that Firefox is the best browser, primarily due to features that he sees as the result of the open source development model that created Firefox.    He says that monopolistic activity by Microsoft has slowed innovation, but feels that Google is a friend of Open Source.     Wales recounted telling Bill Gates at Davos that Microsoft search is so bad people are switching away from it as the Vista default, and suggests that he’ll have fun trying to build a better search than Google with Wikia.

Google, Social Networks, Web 2.0, Websites, companies, search

Google and Privacy

May 12th, 2007

Here is a nice post from Google about their new policy to anonymize search info from users. Like many I have been critical in the past of Google and others for storing this information with little regard to who owns it or saying what they’ll be doing with it.     Yahoo and MSN do not (yet) have similar policies so I think Google can rightly claim a higher road since they have also been the one who has fought Government attempts to nab search data.   (I have mixed feelings about that since, unlike folks like Battelle, I fear commercial abuses  more than I fear the Government will use my data in illegal and harmful ways.

Google, companies, search, yahoo

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